Due to the importance of energy sector for Kazakhstan economy and extension of globalization, it seems essential to research features of Kazakhstan energy policy as one of the factors of its influence expansion in Central Asia.
Considering turbulence in global policy, world economy and Kazakhstan facing challenges in energy sphere, the need for new approaches for conceptualization of region energy topics exists for long-term political and economical development of Kazakhstan in Euro-Asian area.
In expression of interest to the subject of research – the geopolitical influence of Kazakhstan, considering the availability and realization of owned mineral and energy resources, the need in creation of analytical experts group dealing with studying the nature of the topic, evolution of energy sector legalization (Energy Law), barriers on the way of energy sector development and ways of its solution is long overdue.
The researches approaches applied by the Center in term of theory, via background analysis will make it possible to realize the present and to some extend predict the future, which is the structure of future processes and phenomena. Practically, conclusions concerning energy can be applied by State Authorities for discovery of guidelines to ensure energy security of Kazakhstan, spread of Kazakhstan influence perspectives, generation of its energy policy development scenario.
Obviously, energy nature of global changes that we observe is hardly airtight; however, from our point of view in particular more systematically they allow to look into the future and setup possible paths of energy development. As a result the Center will get experience in work with different points of view on the development of global energy.
In the future Kazakhstan will face a number of challenges at the time when the issues of its own energy security provision won’t be fully resolved yet, represent in many aspects the technical structure of 20th century (huge coal utilization) when government made a commitment by Paris Climate Agreement to reduce the emissions.
We are all witnessing the transition to neoindustrial development in the developed countries of the world. Where succeed the understanding of political and economical elite, process by which only enforced industry development on the base of new technologies can ensure their long-term leadership in 21st century and for that reason huge efforts both from science and business and strong support of the government are required. Since the main driver of Kazakhstan economy growth is energy, it could appear in vanguard of our country transition to neoinnovative industrial development. This might be done by means of technical new approaches implementation or set a course for sustaining others sectors of economy at which Kazakhstan has competitive advantages and that in the future will probably be no less valuable than energy itself, for example agricultural sector.
For consolidation of sustainable energy development and taking lasting solutions and plans, it is required to analyze current world events. It is impossible not to bear in mind the credible challenge related to falling of oil consumption that can significantly decrease the value of this resource and hereto related restructuring of world economy.
In the world developed countries the innovative scenario implementation by mass development of electrical transportation is ongoing. The ratio of electric vehicles by 2050 is 80%, also the required infrastructure and generating capacities for provision of electricity for these vehicles are under the development. If we simply assume that at least 15% of Kazakhstan vehicles become e-vehicles what tremendous stress our existing grids will experience; do we have such scenario? In fact nobody can restrict the usage of environmentally-friendly vehicles to the citizens of Republic of Kazakhstan, probably nobody, and important thing is where to get new electricity generating capacities. All of the above suggests the idea of creating new intelligent energy conception, renovation of long-range energy policy focused on decision taking of energy security and sustainable energy development, the main driver of national wealth savings.
Increase of energy producing countries in the world enforces the great competition for markets as well as buildup of these new miners, application of new technologies during oil extraction in USA (shale production), limitation in physical capacities, more specifically the absence of access to the sea for export of energy sources; factors, which cannot be ignored in long term strategy planning by Kazakhstan.
It is possible to assume the abstracted hypothetic political challenge related to supposing that in OECD countries the transition to the new technological wave would be completed. The developed countries will not enforce this step to the developing nations, which are not passed, or still are at the begging of the way to this transition by the example of Paris Climate Agreement, upon their conditions reminding modern neocolonialism. In fact OECD countries strive to convert own strategic weakness – low energy security, into the advantage by becoming a leader on energy efficiency of its usage and enforcing their own standards to other countries on these issues.
All these and many other issues of today’s world and tomorrow’s don’t find proper sensemaking in Kazakhstan that proves once again the primary concern of these issues; there is no agency or analytical center that focuses on the issues of long-range strategic plans, updating of existing plans considering life introduced changes, new conception of global energy development trends.
China also has plans on ensuring its energy security. To nowadays China develops the plan on hydrocarbon production within its border, RES, there is a rapid growth of nuclear energy. The global regionalization that we are observing now pushes the neighbors to closer cooperation. Regionalization on the other hand builds regional institutional relationship in energy sector, in investment component and in the sphere of commercial relations. China is aimed to reduce its dependence on more hazardous external supply of hydrocarbons by increasing of purchased portion from its neighbors (Russia, Kazakhstan).
In building of reasonable energy policy, in case of reducing of oil supply to the West Europe in the future, the republic can compensate the sales and even increase its supplies to China.
It is expected that in perspective the complex of regional energy cooperation will play increasingly important role in global energy development.
The role, economic clout of Republic of Kazakhstan in Central Asia as well as required resources component for realization of own foreign policy challenges in energy sector supports our government to offer a number of energy initiatives in the region by means of kick energy diplomacy.